Swedbank and the SEB Bank, which are two of Lithuania’s biggest commercial banks, have raised their inflation forecasts for this year to an expected annual rate of 3% and 3.3% respectively.
This is up from last November, when both banks predicted an average price rise of 2.7% this year. Both have made the same 2.7% prediction for 2026, as well.
“Unlike last year, energy prices will have a positive impact on inflation this year,” says Tadas Povilauskas, chief economist at the SEB Bank. “Also contrary to last year, the price of the food basket will increase this year.” Mr Povilauskas was speaking at the presentation of his bank’s latest projections.
The economist believes the annual inflation rate in Lithuania could reach as much as 4% in the autumn: “All components – food, energy and services will be more expensive.”
Swedbank’s chief economist, in turn, is Nerijus Maciulis, and he says inflation could reach the 3% threshold this spring and rise to 3.5% during the summer.
“We already know several reasons for this,” the economist explains. “It is not a matter of projection that excise duties on fuel, alcohol and tobacco were raised at the beginning this year. We also have rising gas and oil prices in the energy market, as well as less favourable trends in commodity markets. Inflation, therefore, could be higher than currently anticipated.”
Source: BNS
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