By Kārlis Martiņš Gulbis, Investment Analyst at Signet Bank.

Six months into the Hormuz war, August added borrowing costs at multi decade highs and a Fed preparing to hike. The 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest since 2007 mid-month before the Treasury doubled buybacks of 10- to 30-year debt, steadying the long end of the curve but stoking debasement talk and carrying gold to a three-month high near USD 4,700/oz. Then came Jackson Hole. Kevin Warsh, in his first symposium as Chair, warned that better summer CPI and PCE prints “do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved” and that the Fed still has work to do, language that lifted September hike odds from 36% to roughly 60% in a session.

The S&P 500 gained roughly 2.6% and the Nasdaq Composite 3.9%, both snapping two month losing streaks, while the Dow’s 1.3% secured a fifth consecutive winning month. Seoul, the epicenter of July’s rout, delivered the mirror image – KOSPI rebounded some 22% in ten trading days off its 30 July low, helped by SK hynix’s KRW 40t buyback.

STOXX 600 added 0.3% for a fifth straight positive month, while Bitcoin rallied 25% to about BTC/USD 78k. Brent dipped below USD 80/bbl early in the month before closing near USD 90.50/bbl, up only ~3% after July’s surge, as Washington and Tehran exchanged fire on the final weekend of August for the first time in a month and Trump threatened Iran’s Kharg Island export hub.

Everyone’s a bond vigilante now

July’s long-end selloff was largely American, but in August it stopped being so. The August 18 session that carried the 30-year Treasury to 5.34% also lifted 10- and 30-year Bunds to their highest since 2011, Canada’s 30-year to a 2010 high and the UK’s 50-year gilt to a record 5.39%. Japan moved furthest, the 10-year JGB reaching 2.945%, its highest since 1996.

The response came from issuers rather than central banks as Washington doubled long-end buybacks, Japan’s Ministry of Finance cut super-long issuance to a 17-year low, and the UK Debt Management Office shifted its GBP 252b remit shorter. France remains the most exposed in the EU, the 10-year OAT above 4.1% for the first time since November 2008 and the Bund spread near 83bp against a deficit of 5.1% of GDP.

Two summits for two global orders

The last 48 hours of August produced two competing views of the global order. In Asheville, the G20 finance track, 85% of global GDP met under the US presidency against an IMF briefing showing five-year growth projections near their weakest since 2009. Bessent’s message was that “the world is awash in debt and only growth gets it out”, though the joint statement set no targets. The more consequential item was “Economic D-Day”: secondary sanctions on enablers of Iranian oil exports, with EU backing secured, and “all options on the table” on China’s Iranian crude purchases. The bloc on the receiving end marked its own 25-year anniversary in Bishkek.

The SCO’s ten members, part of a 27-country grouping with combined GDP near USD 30t, signed a declaration condemning unilateral sanctions and demanding more developing country weight in the IMF, alongside 27 documents, a 2026-2030 ports roadmap and progress on the USD 4.7b China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway. Putin cited USD 400b of trade and 98% local currency settlement with the rest of the SCO. Yet the proposed creation of a Development Bank agreed a year ago still has no charter, capital or timetable, and the chair passed to Pakistan with the financial architecture no further along.

Memory chips now cost more than gold

Nvidia’s 26 August result was the beat the market wanted: revenue of USD 96.2b against USD 92.1b expected, a next quarter guide of USD 108b against consensus near USD 104b, and an 8.7% move in the shares. Management put CapEx at the five largest hyperscalers at USD 1.3t next year, up from roughly USD 800b in 2026, and AWS committed to 2m GPUs. The more consequential number came from Korea.

DRAM export prices averaged USD 92,183/kg over the first twenty days of August, up 401% YoY, with export values up 505%. Since January 2023 memory has risen twelve and a half times against gold’s two and a half, and Germany’s DDR5 retail index reached 486% of its mid-2025 level. Analysts now expect higher memory costs to cut global PC and smartphone shipments this year on physical constraint, with fabs years away and the DRAM deficit projected to widen into 2027.

Nothing from the greenback, but plenty from commodities

The Dollar Index failed to hold above 100 mark and has moved back into its established range, while EUR/USD briefly traded above 1.1700 before the dollar found buyers late in the month. We see 1.1400-1.1800 as the key range and a decisive break either way could mark the start of a more durable trend. Our dollar outlook remains neutral to modestly negative.

With inflation expectations rebuilding, precious metals have recovered from their recent correction. We continue to favor silver and platinum over gold, while our newer idea, agricultural commodities, was one of the standout performers of the month.