Gavin Newsom’s approval ratings are telling two different stories depending on which poll a voter picks up this summer.
The Public Policy Institute of California puts him at 50% approval among adults and 54% among likely voters in its latest statewide survey. That marks a notably stronger showing than a California Post-McLaughlin Associates poll from late May, which found just 49% of likely primary voters approving of his job performance. The same McLaughlin survey showed 50% disapproval, with pollster John McLaughlin describing Newsom as deeply polarizing among the state’s electorate.
“Only 49% of all voters approve of the job Gavin Newsom is doing, while 50% disapprove of the job he’s done, including 22% among Democrats,” McLaughlin said.
Partisan splits remain the defining feature of Newsom’s standing at home, according to the PPIC breakdown. About eight in ten Democrats approve of his performance, while roughly nine in ten Republicans and 54% of independents disapprove.
Bay Area residents rank as his strongest regional supporters, while voters in the Central Valley remain the least likely to back him. Economic frustration is shaping much of the sentiment underneath those approval figures.
Cost of living and inflation topped the list of concerns among California adults, cited by 44% of respondents in the PPIC survey. Housing costs followed at 14%, with worries about government dysfunction and the state budget rounding out the top issues.
Beyond California’s borders, Newsom’s numbers tell a rougher story for a governor widely seen as eyeing a 2028 presidential run.
A national NBC News survey conducted earlier this year found only around 27% of voters nationwide viewed him favorably, against 45% unfavorable. That trailed President Trump’s own favorability in the same poll, which stood near 41% positive and 53% negative despite his own middling reception.
A separate Financial Times poll from May placed Newsom’s national favorability at 31%, with 34% holding an unfavorable view. Newsom’s support inside his own party remains far more solid than his crossover appeal with independents or Republicans nationally.
More than 60% of strong Democrats view him favorably, according to that same Financial Times data, showing his base has largely stayed intact. Strong Republicans take the opposite view, with more than 60% expressing an unfavorable opinion of the governor.
Analysts tracking his numbers note that approval ratings alone rarely determine how a competitive statewide race plays out. Undecided voters, endorsement dynamics, and how rival candidates consolidate support will likely matter just as much heading toward the primary.
Newsom has yet to make an endorsement in the race to succeed him, with Democrats Tom Steyer and Xavier Becerra battling for the party’s base.
Republican Steve Hilton has meanwhile positioned himself as the frontrunner on that side of the ballot, according to recent surveys.
Looking further ahead, Newsom continues to lead early 2028 Democratic primary polling, according to Emerson College’s most recent national numbers. He held 36% support in that survey, up 13 points from the previous measurement, ahead of Pete Buttigieg, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Kamala Harris.
Whether that early strength translates into durable national support will likely depend on how his California record holds up under scrutiny.
For now, the governor’s approval trajectory looks like a tale of two audiences, solid enough at home to keep his coalition together, but still a work in progress on the national stage.
