How will Estonia’s declining population affect the property market?

Kastani tänav in Tartu. Source: Airika Harrik/ERR

Estonia’s population is falling and the birthrate is at a record low. But how will this affect the country’s housing market in the coming decades?

Estonia currently has just over 1.36 million residents. Over the past year, the population decreased by more than 9,000, and researchers forecast a continued steady decline.

“Over a period of about 20 years, assuming that immigration continues, the decline could be around 3 to 5 percent. If there were no migration at all, it could be as much as 8 to 10 percent,” Martin Klesment, a senior researcher and demographer at Tartu Ülikool, told Sunday’s “AK. Nädal”

Changes in population size will also begin to affect the real estate landscape. At present, a large generation — those born in the late 1980s, for example — is at the age when people typically buy homes.

“They are now at the stage of life when it is a good time to acquire real estate, perhaps to move into a larger apartment or house. In 20 years, due to demographic structure, the number of such people will be about 20 percent smaller,” Klesment said.

Read more: ERR.EE

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