Electricity prices across the Baltic states have surged in November as maintenance at major power plants, weak wind generation and expensive electricity imports from Central Europe tighten regional supply. Nearly 1,400 megawatts of generating capacity are currently unavailable across Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, while maintenance at Swedish nuclear power plants is adding further pressure to the market.
Baltic electricity prices reach highest levels since February
Estonia’s average day-ahead electricity price reached €305 per megawatt-hour (MWh) on November 10, the highest level since the beginning of February, according to data reported by public broadcaster ERR. Prices remained high on November 11, averaging €248/MWh.
During the first 11 days of November, the average electricity price stood at €199.2/MWh in Estonia, compared with €304/MWh in Latvia and €295/MWh in Lithuania. Finland’s average was considerably lower at €71/MWh.
Electricity prices in Estonia have remained below those in Germany and Poland partly because Eesti Energia has brought additional oil-shale generation capacity online from reserve, Enefit management board member Tiit Hõbejõgi told ERR.
Nearly 1,400 MW of generating capacity offline
Several major electricity generation facilities across the Baltic states are undergoing maintenance at the same time, reducing the amount of dispatchable capacity available to the market.
In Latvia, the 73 MW Riga TEC-1 facility is scheduled to remain offline through November 14. The second generating unit at Riga TEC-2, with a capacity of 420 MW, is undergoing maintenance through November 26.
Lithuania is also experiencing reduced generation capacity. A 455 MW unit at the Elektrėnai power plant is scheduled to remain offline through November 25.
Estonia’s available capacity has been affected by maintenance at the 260 MW Auvere power plant and one 105 MW boiler at Eesti Power Plant’s Unit 8. Together, these facilities account for 365 MW of unavailable generation capacity.
According to Tiit Hõbejõgi, a member of Enefit’s management board, the simultaneous outages at Latvian and Lithuanian gas-fired plants have reduced dispatchable capacity in those two countries by approximately 1,000 MW. Combined with the unavailable Estonian facilities, nearly 1,400 MW of generating capacity are temporarily off the market.
Wind generation falls sharply across the region
Low wind production is another important factor behind the price increase. Baltic wind farms have been generating approximately 0.5 gigawatts on average, equivalent to around 10% of their combined installed capacity.
According to Hardi Koduvere, senior analyst for energy market modelling at Estonia’s electricity transmission system operator Elering, the share of electricity demand covered by wind and solar generation fell from approximately 40% in October to around 20% at the beginning of November.
Solar electricity production also declined significantly as daylight hours shortened. With less renewable electricity available, the region has had to rely more heavily on conventional power plants and cross-border imports.
Swedish nuclear maintenance adds pressure to electricity imports
Electricity market conditions in Sweden are also affecting prices in the Baltic states. Transmission capacity between Sweden’s southern electricity price areas, SE3 and SE4, has been reduced by approximately 2–3 gigawatts.
At the same time, three Swedish nuclear reactors with a combined capacity of approximately 3.3 GW are undergoing maintenance.
According to Hõbejõgi, the scheduled return dates for the reactors are:
Forsmark 1: November 17.
Ringhals 4: November 21.
Ringhals 3: November 28.
Reduced transmission capacity means Sweden’s southernmost price area, SE4, has to import more electricity from Germany, where wholesale prices have been high.
This affects the Baltic states because electricity from the German market can reach the region through the NordBalt interconnector linking Sweden and Lithuania. Poland, another high-price market, also trades electricity through Lithuania, adding further upward pressure on regional prices.
Nordic energy market faces additional winter risks
The pressure on electricity prices extends beyond the Baltic states. In a November 9 report, Reuters cited Danish energy trader Mind Energy, which warned of an increased risk of winter electricity price spikes across the Nordic region.
The Nordic countries are entering the heating season with hydropower resources approximately 11 terawatt-hours below normal levels. Lower European gas storage and disruptions to liquefied natural gas supplies linked to Middle East shipping conditions are adding further uncertainty.
These developments are particularly important during periods of cold weather and weak wind generation, when electricity markets become more dependent on conventional power plants and imported energy. In such conditions, prices in southern Nordic markets can be influenced by more expensive gas-fired generation in Germany.
Consumers and businesses face higher electricity costs
The impact of higher wholesale prices depends on the type of electricity contract. Households and businesses with exchange-linked agreements are directly exposed to day-ahead market fluctuations, while customers with fixed-price contracts are generally protected from immediate wholesale price increases.
Energy-intensive businesses may face additional operating costs if elevated prices persist. Manufacturing, industrial production and companies with significant electricity consumption are particularly exposed to prolonged periods of expensive power.
Plant restarts could ease supply pressure later in November
The next two weeks will be important for the Baltic electricity market. Latvia’s TEC-1 is scheduled to return on November 14, followed by Lithuania’s Elektrėnai unit on November 25 and Riga TEC-2’s second unit on November 26.
Gradual restarts at Sweden’s Forsmark and Ringhals nuclear plants through November 28 should also improve regional import capacity.
These restarts could improve electricity supply across the region and reduce pressure on wholesale prices. However, the extent of any price relief will also depend on wind generation, temperatures, electricity demand and conditions in neighbouring European markets.
For Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, November’s price surge highlights the importance of available generation capacity, reliable cross-border connections and weather conditions in determining regional electricity costs.
Sources:
ERR – Electricity price spike fueled by plant outages across Baltics
Elering – Analysis of factors behind high Baltic electricity prices
Reuters – Nordic region risks winter energy cost spikes
