Revised data show Estonia’s recession was smaller than initially expected

Euro bills and coins. Source: Siim Lõvi/ERR

Revised data published by Statistics Estonia last week show that last year’s economic downturn was smaller than initially estimated. Analysts said the methodology is complex, flash estimates are not final, and recalculations are part of the process.

Estonia’s economy contracted from the first quarter of 2022 until mid-2024, the new data shows. Although it was less steep than initial figures suggested.

Bigbank’s chief economist Raul Eamets pointed out that the revised data differ significantly from the figures people are used to seeing in Statistics Estonia’s live database.

“In current prices, that is, expressed in the prices of the given year, the value of GDP according to the revised data was €39,830,700,000, which is €370.6 million more than was initially calculated. That is not actually bad news,” he said.

Eamets noted the 2023 data has been revised from the initially estimated 3.1 percent economic decline to 2.8 percent decline. Instead of a 0.3 percent decline for 2024, the corrected figure is 0.1 percent.

More read: ERR.EE

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